NFL Playoff Picks..Bengals..Depression

NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks

So last week I went 0-2-2 against-the-spread and 0-4 on my Wild Card winners. Amongst all of that, the Bengals lost by 17 points to the Chargers, the Colts rallied from 21-points down to defeat the Chiefs, and the 49ers/Saints advanced on late field goals.

There are now 4 playoff games down, and 7 to go. Here are my picks for the weekend, but apparently my picks should be followed with caution.

SATURDAY:

New Orleans Saints (+9.5) over Seattle Seahawks

What my brain is telling me:
By the numbers, this seems like the weekend's biggest mismatch, especially given that the game will be played at Seattle's raucous QuestField. Everyone has been comparing this weekend to Seattle's 34-7 victory over the Saints on Monday Night Football in Week 13. Although that was a dominating Seattle performance, I am wary to give up 9.5 points to any team with Sean Payton and Drew Brees on it. Here are the DVOA rankings for each team coming into this weekend's matchup.

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) Rankings

New Orleans: Offense (5th); Passing (3rd); Rushing (19th)

Defense (10th); Passing D (6th); Rushing D (20th)

Special Teams (24th); Red Zone D (20th); Red Zone Offense (9th)

Seattle: Offense (7th); Passing (8th); Rushing (7th)

Defense (1st); Passing D (1st); Rushing D (8th)

Special Teams (5th); Red Zone D (1st); Red Zone Offense (20th)

The key battles of the week concern the NO passing game against the Seattle secondary (3rd v. 1st), the Seattle rushing attack against the NO defense (8th v. 20th), and the NO red zone offense against the Seattle red zone defense (9th v. 1st). On paper, the Seahawks seem to have almost every advantage in this matchup. The one possible chance for the Saints to win is for them to take advantage of Seattle's 20th-ranked red zone offense and to force Seattle to kick field goals.

What my beer belly is telling me:
In a pick-em game, I would certainly take the Seahawks but I think there is a strong chance for the Saints to cover in a 17-10 or 21-13 game. The Seahawks can have issues scoring the ball at times, and if the Saints are going to win it will likely be a low-scoring game (even though that seems counter-intuitive to Nola's offensive reputation).

Indianapolis Colts (+7) over New England Patriots

What my brain is telling me:
Besides Carolina-San Francisco this is the week's toughest ATS decision for me. For weeks I have been criticizing Indianapolis as a mediocre team, but they somehow find ways to keep games close at the end. New England clearly has superior numbers on offense and special teams but their injury-ravaged defense will face a big challenge with Andrew Luck coming to town.

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) Rankings

Indianapolis: Offense (13th); Passing (17th); Rushing (11th)

Defense (16th); Passing D (13th); Rushing D (22nd)

Special Teams (17th); Red Zone D (20th); Red Zone Offense (11th)

New England: Offense (4th); Passing (7th); Rushing (6th)

Defense (21st); Passing D (14th); Rushing D (27th)

Special Teams (2nd); Red Zone D (15th); Red Zone Offense (7th)

The Colts have to be hoping for a very sloppy weekend from the New England defense, which rates in the bottom half of the league. On defense, the Colts must prevent the Patriots from making big plays like they allowed against the Chiefs last week. If Indy limits New England to a short-passing offense, there is a chance that they can prevent Brady and Belichick from putting up 35+ points.

To be fair, Dalton never had someone that open...

What my beer belly is telling me:
New England could win this game by 24 or lose by 2. The Colts have been getting destroyed in the first half of games this year but if they can keep it within a one-score game at halftime, they certainly have a shot at beating this Pats team.

SUNDAY:

Carolina Panthers (+1.5) over San Francisco 49ers

What my brain is telling me:
This is the weekend's most difficult matchup, with Carolina actually getting points at home against a hot 49ers squad. I'm all in on this Carolina team, but it is really hard to count out Jim Harbaugh in a playoff game.

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) Rankings

San Francisco: Offense (8th); Passing (4th); Rushing (14th)

Defense (13th); Passing D (10th); Rushing D (14th)

Special Teams (7th); Red Zone D (20th); Red Zone Offense (8th)

Carolina: Offense (10th); Passing (14th); Rushing (4th)

Defense (3rd); Passing D (3rd); Rushing D (6th)

Special Teams (13th); Red Zone D (2nd); Red Zone Offense (14th)

All the talking heads have been saying that Carolina does not have the offense to put up points at the same pace as San Francisco. Honestly, I haven't seen that much this season. San Francisco's X-factor is receiver Michael Crabtree but that may only help out so much against the 3rd-ranked passing defense. Carolina's 2nd-ranked red zone defense may also be crucial in stopping Colin Kaepernick and Frank Gore from reaching the endzone. Look out for Carolina to rush four and put a linebacker (quite possibly DPOY Luke Kuechly) on Kaep for most of the game in order to prevent the speedy QB from finding open space with his legs.

What my beer belly is telling me:
Carolina has actually been great at home this past season and if Cam Newton's offense can produce 20+ points I think they win this game. San Francisco should try and score early to put some stress on the Carolina offense, hopefully forcing Newton to make some dangerous throws. In the end, I'm riding with the Panthers.

Denver Broncos (-8.5) over San Diego Chargers

What my brain is telling me:

My brain tells me this should be a close football game. Yes, Denver is the highest-scoring offense of all time, playing against 2013's worst defense. Yes, Denver has the #1 red zone offense, playing against the 31st-ranked Chargers. But...

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) Rankings

San Diego: Offense (3rd); Passing (2nd); Rushing (12th)

Defense (32nd); Passing D (31st); Rushing D (31st)

Special Teams (15th); Red Zone D (31st); Red Zone Offense (13th)

Denver: Offense (1st); Passing (1st); Rushing (10th)

Defense (15th); Passing D (21st); Rushing D (9th)

Special Teams (21st); Red Zone D (25th); Red Zone Offense (1st)

The numbers suggest that San Diego (despite their sloppy entrance into the playoffs) is actually a top-tier team, with a defense that has actually improved greatly over the past few weeks. Oh, and these two division rivals played each other twice this season, splitting the series. Denver won the first matchup in San Diego 28-20, and then lost at home 27-20 just five weeks ago at home. Now with star pass rusher Von Miller on IR, it seems foolish to give up 8.5 points to the Chargers.

What my beer belly is telling me:

Denver wins this game by 10+ points. I think it the Chargers run ends this week in a game that is close up until halftime. With Wes Welker back on the field, Peyton Manning should be able to tear apart the secondary as long as he doesn't face too much pressure. The Broncos will likely give up a good chuck of yards to the Chargers, but a few mistakes could turn it into a 2-3 score game quickly.

And most likely I'll go 1-3 with the picks this week.

*Sigh...*