NFL Season Preview: Ughhh Too Much to Do

Okay, so I've been trying to balance out my responsibilities to law school, the blog, the California sunshine, and my tan (joking, I'm still white). Today marks the start of the NFL season and this will not be the in-depth post I was hoping to make, but my 2013 Bengals preview on Saturday will go in-depth on the only team that really matters this year. Anyways, here we go.

So does anyone remember who even won the SuperBowl last year?

A 2013 Blog Don't Lie NFL Preview: The AFC

AFC East:

1st Place: The New England Patriots

Expected Record: 11-5 

Not really sure why this one is still a difficult decision. The last time that the Patriots lost their division, they missed the playoffs with an 11-5 record, an entire season played without Tom Brady. The East champions that year were the Miami Dolphins, who somehow are considered a playoff contender this year as well. Maybe the Dolphins manage enough out of sophomore QB Ryan Tannehill to win 8+ games in a weak division, but I wouldn't bet on it.

The criticism of the Patriots centers around the decimation of their receiving core with Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, and pass-catching RB Danny Woodhead all gone this season. Tight end Rob Gronkowski had back surgery in the offseason but he is expected to return within the first four weeks of the season, possibly as early as Week 2. I am not as concerned about any of this in the regular season. Brady should be able to make enough work with new rookie WRs Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson and with RBs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. He's done much more with worse. The defense looks to be much-improved as well. 

There are two tough 3-game stretches in their schedule that will determine if they receive one of the AFC's top two playoff seeds. Weeks 4-6 they play @Atlanta, @Cincinnati, and home against New Orleans. In Weeks 11-13 they play @Carolina, vs. Denver, and @Housto
n. I expect them to win three to four of these six games and that alone should allow them to be a 10-win team.

What it comes down to: The Secondary. Brady will get enough points on the board to beat most teams, but if the New England secondary struggles this season, there may be a few surprise losses. 

My Fantasy Pick: TE Zach Sudfeld. A popular handcuff for Gronkowski owners, Sudfeld may still become a very relevant fantasy tight end (top 10) if the Patriots decide to keep him on the field if and when Gronkowski returns. The Patriots love 2 TE sets in their offense so don't count him out.

2nd Place: The Miami Dolphins 

Expected Record: 7-9

This is more like it. The Dolphins have a difficult schedule and even the addition of WR Mike Wallace from Pittsburgh (Good riddance) should not improve the NFL's 28th ranked offense from last season. Their defense is certainly their calling card and it should remain a top-10 unit especially within the East. 

DL Cameron Wake is a certifiable monster and he can pressure the quarterback as well as any other player in the league. I also like new head RB Lamar Miller to have a 1,200-yard rushing season but there just isn't enough in the offense to beat some of the high-octane offenses that they play this year.

What it comes down to: Lamar Miller and the running game. If Miller and/or Daniel Thomas can balance out the offensive attack, it should open up the field for Tannehill to utilize his passing weapons.

My Fantasy Pick: WR Brian Hartline. Hartline often has like one really crazy game each year, but with the addition of Mike Wallace, the middle of the field may be open for Hartline to approach 70+ receptions.

3rd Place: The Buffalo Bills

Expected Record: 5-11

Honestly, I'd love to buy into the Bills. I think RB CJ Spiller is going to be a beast and that rookie QB EJ Manuel (EJ & CJ, C'mon!) will prove to be a valuable quarterback once he gets used to the NFL speed. However, Manuel is currently injured and besides a Week 3 matchup @ the Jets, the Bills are one of my picks to potentially go 0-8 or 1-7 in their first stretch of games. Almost every game at home this year (heck, their Dec. 1 matchup against Atlanta is being held in Toronto) is a killer so I just don't think this is the season. 

However, the defense has a chance to come together after an injury-riddled 2012 season so this may be my AFC East sleeper next year. 

What it comes down to: The quarterback. Some signs point to Manuel proving why he was the first-overall quarterback taken this year, but if he remains injured it could be a long season for Buffalo.

My Fantasy Pick: Manuel. Even Tim Tebow (damnit, didn't mean to mention him) was a top 15 QB during his time in Denver because of his legs so Manuel could certainly be a great backup in most formats.

4th Place: The New York Jets

Expected Record: 5-11

I take thorough enjoyment out of any Jets misery, but to be fair, they've owned the Bengals as of late. Cincinnati takes on the Jets at home this year, but even that's a game I'm not willing to write off completely. The QB situation has been discussed too often, but there's clearly not enough offensive continuity on this team to expect a 7+ win season. 

The defense still has the potential of a top-10 squad so all it takes is something to click and maybe the offense is good enough to squeak out some 13-9 games. I don't see it, but who knows. 

Terrible stretch: @Atlanta, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. New England, @ Cincinnati, vs. New Orleans, @ Buffalo, @ Baltimore, vs. Miami.

What it comes down to: Nothing. Enjoy the season Jets fans. 

My Fantasy Pick: RB Chris Ivory. No one else on this team merits a second thought. Ivory is a capable back and I am sure that Geno Smith/Sanchez will give him enough carries to reach 1,200 yards and five touchdowns.

AFC North:

1st Place: The Cincinnati Bengals 

Expected Record: 11-5

If you took the best QB in the league (your pick of Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, or Tom Brady) and could put him on any team in the NFL, it would probably be the Seattle Seahawks or the Bengals. That's how good the structure of this team is. I will go into the Bengals season further later this week but the upside is pretty clear. 

The Bengals return a team that is above-average on both sides of the ball. Often the best way to evaluate a team is to look from the inside-out, meaning the defensive and offensive lines. On defense, Geno Atkins headlines a tremendous group of monsters who really like to hit the quarterback. And not just four, but seven linemen deep.

On offense, I will really be looking at how Offensive Coordinator Jay Gruden utilizes player talents to bring out the most from third-year QB Andy Dalton AKA The Red Rifle. Rookies RB Gio Bernard and TE Tyler Eifert will test just how creative the Bengals can be with an offense of playmakers to revolve around the greatness that is AJ Green. I'll go into a schedule rundown this week, but luckily for Cincinnati, a team that usually hits its stride at midseason, the middle of the schedule gets very friendly.

What it comes down to: Andy Dalton and the coaching staff. The franchise's sights (except for Mike Brown, he just cares about money) are set on the first playoff victory since 1990 and it will be up to Dalton to overcome his past mistakes under pressure and to utilize his offensive weapons. Then again, if AJ Green gets hurt, don't count out a 6-win season. He's that important.

My Fantasy Pick: Gio Bernard seems like a great pick, especially if you watched HBO's Hard Knocks, but I'd beware. Even though rookies have succeeded on the team recently, Dalton and Green really had no one to battle for snaps. I do not think the coaching staff will fully utilize Bernard's skills this year but you can expect him to be a decent PPR play. I think the Bengals Defense will be great this year, so keep an eye on them.

2nd Place: The Pittsburgh Steelers
Expected Record: 10-6

Year after year I root for the Steelers to fall short of the playoffs and last season I was rewarded. But really, I cannot expect it to happen again. I think Ben Roethlisberger will have a relatively healthy season and that the loss of WR Mike Wallace will really not be that noticeable. Center Maurkice Pouncey headlines an improved offensive line that will give the running game just enough daylight to balance out the offense.

Coach Mike Tomlin will certainly make sure the defense gets back on track and I think Rookie linebacker Jarvis Jones (Georgia) will be a big impact player this season. It really would not surprise me if Pittsburgh starts off 6-1 and immediately contends for the AFC North crown. 

What it comes down to: Health. Pittsburgh still has enough to be a Super Bowl contender, but they need Roethlisberger and the offensive line to be on the field for 14+ games.

My Fantasy Pick:


3rd Place: The Baltimore Ravens
Expected Record: 8-8

An offseason of roster overhauls, the loss of Ray Lewis/Ed Reed, and a much tougher schedule give me the sense that Baltimore may be watching playoff football from home this January. Look, GM Ozzie Newsome and the Baltimore staff should be heralded for how well they have set up this team, but if not for a few fortunate breaks, they may not have made the playoffs last year. The Ravens were 7-3 in one-score games last season and certainly should have lost a game against San Diego that they saved on a fourth-and-29 conversion with a Ray Rice screen pass. (That play should only work in Madden)

It's not impossible and I have actually always actually been a fan of Joe Flacco as a quarterback. It just seems that this is the year Baltimore falls just short of the playoffs.

What it comes down to: The first half of the season. The first ten games come @Denver, vs. Cleveland, vs. Houston, @Buffalo, @Miami, vs. Green Bay, @ Pittsburgh, @ Cleveland, vs. Cincinnati, and @Chicago. The Ravens have usually relied on a quick start, so they better be ready.

My Fantasy Pick: WR Torrey Smith. Smith should perform like a legitimate WR2 in about every league this year. The Baltimore defense should regress this season so I like the idea of Flacco having to throw it deep a few more times each game. Expect 9+ touchdowns from Smith.

4th Place: The Cleveland Browns
Expected Record: 5-11

I'm not expecting a huge season out of the Browns this year, but in no means do I think a match against this Cleveland squad is an easy matchup. They got lineman Paul Kruger from Baltimore and added more defensive talent in the offseason. With Trent Richardson at running back and a solid offensive line, the running game should be dangerous. Hopefully, sophomore (but 29-years-old) QB Brandon Weeden makes some better decisions and WR Greg Little doesn't drop 88 passes.

What it comes down to: The Dog Pound. If Cleveland can win a fair share of their favorable home games (Miami, Buffalo, Detroit, Jacksonville, Cincinnati? we always lose one to them), they could definitely approach 8-8 but I am not ready to give Weeden the benefit of the doubt.

My Fantasy Pick: No one really. I believe that Trent Richardson is a beast, so I'll go with him even though he is a top-10 running back in most drafts. I buy into him being healthy and the only option for this Cleveland team to do much damage.

AFC South: 

1st Place: The Houston Texans
Expected Record: 12-4

Now we get to Andy Dalton's kryptonite. The Texans should also be on that list of top-overall teams I mentioned earlier. On defense, J.J. Watt is obviously the toast of the NFL and the secondary is strong with ex-Bengal CB Jonathan Joseph and ex-Raven S Ed Reed. The offensive line is massive and RB Arian Foster has a perfect understanding of their zone-blocking scheme. QB Matt Schaub has received too much criticism and this team is probably my favorite to represent the AFC in the SuperBowl.

We will get to see the Texans play almost every upper-echelon NFL team except for Green Bay (vs. Seattle, @San Francisco, vs. New England, vs. Denver) so we will get a good idea of how well they can stack up with some of their playoff opponents.

What it comes down to: Nothing. Write them in for 10+ wins and the playoffs.

My Fantasy Pick: WR DeAndre Hopkins may have a breakout season as Schaub's safety valve so we'll see if he can find enough open space to make a difference.

2nd Place: The Indianapolis Colts
Expected Record: 9-7

Grantland's Bill Barnwell has written at length about how the Colts are a likely team to regress after a wild 2012 season that saw rookie QB Andrew Luck carry them to the playoffs while Coach Chuck Pagano recovered from leukemia.

I am a little bit higher on the Colts but this should be a more difficult season for the team. Indianapolis was fantastic in one-score games and defenses may figure out how to take advantage of Luck's mistakes.

What it comes down to: The first half of the season. The second half presents a number of favorable matchups for
Indy but the first half should be brutal with games against San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, and Houston.

My fantasy pick: I like WR T.Y Hilton and RB Ahmad Bradshaw to become legitimate starters this season for teams in almost any formate. Bradshaw is still young and elusive when his foot his healthy and Hilton should emerge as Luck's favorite WR in the next year or two.

3rd Place: The Tennessee Titans 
Expected Record: 6-10

I actually think the Tennessee offense should be much improved this year. If Chris Johnson, Kenny Britt, Kendall Wright, and QB Jake Locker can all stay healthy this offense could be flush with fantasy studs. However, the defense is a mess and I don't think the offense can help account for the points they will be giving up. They added Patriot Killer (Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Ridley) safety Bernard Pollard from Baltimore but it shouldn't do much.

What it comes down to: The offensive line. The O-line has been miserable the past few years but they did draft Alabama Guard Chance Warmack in the first round. If they can give Locker some time in the pocket and CJ some holes to run though this offense may actually break the top-20 in the league.

My Fantasy Pick: This is a team I would generally advise you to stay far away from, but WR Kenny Britt has risen up draft boards since it seems he may actually be healthy enough to play 10+ games this year. Wright could be a great PPR play but be wary of this Titans team.

4th Place: The Jacksonville Jaguars 
Expected Record: 3-13

This one may get ugly. The Jaguars are definitely in the running to have the worst record of 2013 and that may enable them to cut ties with QB Blaine Gabbert who just doesn't seem to be the answer for the Jags. Heck, they don't even get a full slate of home games. Their "home" game against San Francisco in London on October 27 will likely be a difficult game to keep close.

What it comes down to: The offense performing against mediocre teams. Jacksonville faces some of the most questionable teams in the league (Kansas City, Oakland, St Louis, San Diego, Tennessee, Buffalo) so there is a possibility they can put it together a few wins against this slate.

My Fantasy Pick: RB Maurice Jones Drew should be a top-15 fantasy pick this year. MJD is just one year removed from leading the league in rushing and he seems to be healthy coming into the season.

AFC West: 

1st Place: The Denver Broncos 
Expected Record: 12-4

The Denver offense is going to be a monster unit this year. I mean, they have three fantastic wide receivers and Peyton Manning. The running back committee includes rookie Montee Ball, Knowshon Moreno, and Ronnie Hillman so there should be fresh legs to help balance out the passing attack.
The biggest question is on defense where they lost Elvis Dumervil and defensive stud Von Miller, who will be suspended for the first six games of the season. This squad should run through the West as long as Peyton stays healthy.

What it comes down to: Peyton. As I said, he makes this the most reliable team in the AFC but if he goes down it may get ugly quickly.

My Fantasy Pick: Ball may have a few great seasons ahead but the first few weeks may be rough as he tries to get the majority of carries. WR Wes Welker should have a crazy year, but then again he always has a crazy year so it's nothing new. This team is full of fantasy options.

2nd Place: The San Diego Chargers
Expected Record: 8-8

San Diego actually wasn't a terrible team last year. Yes, the days of their SuperBowl caliber squads seem to be behind us, but they went 7-9 and had a few really unfortunate losses last year. With Coach Norv Turner gone, expect a little more fight out of this Chargers team as they try to find out if QB Phillip Rivers is still their long-term solution. Plus they drafted, Mant'i Teo, so they have that.

What it comes down to: Holding it down at home. The Chargers have a brutal home schedule with no games that seem like a lock (Houston, Dallas, Indianapolis, Denver, Cincinnati, NY Giants, Kansas City). They need to surprise a few of those teams in order to approach a .500 record for the year.

My Fantasy Pick: It was WR Denario Alexander until he unfortunately got injured, but I'll go with RB Ryan Matthews who suffered TWO collarbone fractures last season. If he is healthy, he's a great all-around back who is slipping down a lot of draft boards. I actually think Teo will have a good season too if you play IDP.

3rd Place: The Kansas City Chiefs
Expected Record: 8-8

Many people are bullish on the Chiefs this year. With new Coach Andy Reid, new QB Alex Smith, and the tragedy of last year's player suicide behind them, the Chiefs definitely have the ability to be the most improved team this year. However, I won't be jumping to a 10+ win season for the squad just yet. The defense is great but their schedule outside of their division is challenging as they face the NFC East.

They certainly have more potential to outperform expectations than the Chargers but I would temper expectations slightly. Next year seems more likely.

What it comes down to: Defeating the AFC South. If they can get wins against Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Indianapolis, they could certainly make a case for a late playoff push.

My Fantasy Pick: I think Jamaal Charles could very well be fantasy's top running back this year. If he's healthy, everything seems to be in place for him having a monster season of 2,000+ combined yards. I also think WR Dwayne Bowe will struggle more than people think. Remember how much San Francisco WR Michael Crabtree succeeded after Smith left? Smith is better than Brady Quinn but Bowe will probably just be a Flex play this year.

4th place: The Oakland Raiders
Expected Record: 4-12

The Raiders have a definite shot at going 0-8 or 1-7 in their first slate of games. Their record after that shouldn't be too great either. Ex-Ohio State QB Terrell Pryor should have an interesting time acclimating to the NFL pace and RB Darren McFadden will certainly not play over 12 games. I don't really have much else I want to write on Oakland.

What it comes down to: Finding joy in the little things. Hopefully they can find some long term solutions but it looks like Oakland is clearly in the hunt for the 1st overall pick.

My Fantasy Pick: Pryor should be interesting. He scored 22 points in one game of standard format leagues last year. If he can run enough he may qualify as a legitimate Bye week candidate at QB.

AFC Playoff Predictions: 

Wild Card Round: 

Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots

I think the Bengals should be able to beat the Colts. Cincinnati struggles with tough defenses like Houston but I think they should be able to pressure Luck enough to come through with their first playoff victory since 1990. 

The Steelers-Patriots game would be a doozy if both QBs are healthy. New England should be able to sneak it out this year and I think Gronkowski runs all over the Steelers secondary. 

Conference Semifinals:
Patriots @ Denver Broncos

Bengals @ Houston Texans

This Patriots-Broncos thing will happen. It should have last year. I think the ghost of Wes Welker haunts the Patriots this year and that they lose to Manning. 

Unfortunately the Bengals just cannot avoid the Texans. After dispatching the Bengals at home in two consecutive playoff games, the Texans will finally let one slip. It's going to be a very ugly game though.

Conference Championship: 

Denver Broncos defeat Cincinnati Bengals

The Broncos should be in full attack mode at this point in the season and Von Miller will terrorize Andy Dalton much like JJ Watt has in recent seasons. I see few opportunities for the Bengals to win at Mile High Stadium.

My NFC Preview should be up by Friday or Saturday, so until then, enjoy the Broncos v. Ravens game tonight. 

Love,

Albert