Monday, September 23, 2013

Reds Series Recap: You Don't Have to Go Home but You Can't Stay Here

Reds Take 2-of-3 from Pirates

Cincinnati's Magic Number drops to 2

Game 1
Cincinnati 6
Pittsburgh 5

W: J. Hoover (5-5)
L: K. Farnsworth (1-1)
S: A. Chapman (38)


Game 1 was an instant classic (for Reds fans at least). Mat Latos had a shaky start, lasting 6 innings and giving up 4 runs in the process. Pittsburgh took a 5-2 lead going into the 9th inning, and somehow, someway, the Reds evened it up. Ryan Ludwick singled with one out. Jay Bruce grounded out, but Todd Frazier reached second base on a Pirate error, bringing the score to 5-3. Zach Cozart singled and was replaced by Billy Hamilton who stole second base. Finally, Devin Mesoraco hit a infield single to third base and Hamilton scored the tying run.

In extras, Joey Votto sent a home run over the left field fence that in no way seemed it would make it there. But that was good enough to steal a Redleg win from the grasps of Pittsburgh.



Boy, this one barely made it over the fence. 

Game 2
Cincinnati 2
Pittsburgh 4

W: A. Burnett (9-11)
L: H. Bailey (11-11)
S: J. Grilli (31)


Homer Bailey struggled to find the strike zone in Game 2 and it was clear as he gave up four runs (two earned), four walks, and only struck out three batters through 5 2/3 innings. The Reds took an early 2-0 lead thanks to a Cozart home run in the second inning, but the Pirates pulled back and held out a 4-2 victory. 

Game 3

Cincinnati 11
Pittsburgh 3

W: B. Arroyo (14-11)
L: J. Locke (10-7)



In the "best" Reds pitching performance of the series, Bronson Arroyo parlayed an early lead into a 5 inning win in which he gave up 3 earned runs (two home runs) on 5 hits. It was honestly an ugly week for Reds starting pitching but the bullpen looked pretty stellar most nights. 

In Game 3 the Reds led 7-0 by the end of the second inning, highlighted by a Frazier home run, and doubles by Chris Heisey and Jay Bruce. Billy Hamilton was great once again in his second career start and the Reds didn't look back on their way to an 11-3 series clinching win. 


Billy Hamilton: The Redleg Surfer
3-for-7, 3 runs, and 3 stolen bases

Hamilton brought his average to .429 in the limited plate appearances he has received. He upped his SB total to 12, behind only Shin Soo Choo (18) for the Reds. Billy has looked very comfortable in CF and many fans will likely be clamoring for him to get a few starts in center while moving Choo to left field.

BHam scored Game 1's tying run from second base...on a infield single. The Reds have struggled with their base running lately, but I swear this kid can't do anything wrong. 

Hamilton has certainly secured himself on the playoff roster, and although Dusty will not want to hand the keys to the young burner right away, the effect he has made since his promotion to the big leagues is unquestionable.

This is the best 1:20 you will spend today. 


Please Don't Stop: 
Joey Votto (past 6 games): 7-for-22, 5 runs, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 8 walks
Jay Bruce (past 6 games):  9-for-26, 6 runs, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 4 walks
Zack Cozart (past 6 games): 7-for-22, 2 runs, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 1 walk

Bruce failed to record a hit in games 2 or 3 in Pittsburgh, but his September numbers are still fantastic. Bruce will force pitchers to pitch to Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips if he continues his great month.

Following a disaster stretch just a few weeks ago, Votto has been seeing the ball consistently and his game-winning home run on Friday hopefully put to rest any questions of his "clutchness."

By the way, great play Todd. 

NL Central Heat Check:

TEAMWLGBRSRA
St. Louis9165-756590
Cincinnati89672687566
Pittsburgh89672606564
Milwaukee698621.5615675
Chicago Cubs659126593660

This week, the Cardinals face the Washington Nationals (84-72) who are on the last leg of their playoff push. Washington currently has a 1.2% chance of making it to the playoffs so expect them to give the Cardinals everything they've got. Prediction: Nationals win 2-1.

The Pirates will head to Chicago for a 3-game series against the Cubs at Wrigley Park. Hopefully our friends over on the South Side can sneak out a win or two against the Buccos. 
Prediction: Pirates win 2-1. 

Finally, the Reds will take on the New York Mets (70-84) and an easier side of the NY pitching staff.
Prediction: Reds win 3-0

RnkTeam
Win

Loss

Expected
Win Pct

Sim
Win

Sim
Loss

Div
Pct

WC
Pct
Sorted Descending
Playoff
Pct

Playoff
Pct (Adj)

WS Win
Pct

1 Day
Delta

7 Day
Delta
1
St. Louis
Cardinals
9164.54395.067.086.1%13.9%100.0%93.0%9.1%0.0%0.3%
2
Pittsburgh
Pirates
8966.53792.569.57.3%92.5%99.8%51.8%4.8%0.4%-0.1%
3
Cincinnati
Reds
8867.55692.070.06.5%92.5%99.0%54.1%6.5%-0.5%0.2%

Barring a great series from the Nationals, the Cardinals should expect to take home the division crown, but as of now the Reds should have the advantage in hosting the Wild Card Play in game at home. Next week's final series against Pittsburgh should be interesting.

Reds v. Mets Matchups: 


Sep 23, 2013NYM (Harang) @ CIN (Cueto)7:10 PM ET
Sep 24, 2013NYM (Niese) @ CIN (Leake)7:10 PM ET
Sep 25, 2013NYM (Matsuzaka) @ CIN (Reynolds)12:35 PM ET
As always, Viva Rojos!

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